For Canadian immigration, 2023 was a historic year with more new laws, regulations, and reforms than in many years prior. Will 2024 see a decline in the CRS score?
There are, nevertheless, recurring themes, one of which is the significance of the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) in Express Entry candidates’ immigration travels. Many are asking if the Express Entry draws from last year would see more of the same as the CRS scores were higher than typical (in some cases reaching as high as 791).
What can we expect in 2024?
In brief, it is challenging to forecast the trajectory of CRS ratings beyond 2024. This is due to a number of factors, one of which is that CRS scores are mostly influenced by the composition of the Express Entry pool at any given time of the year. More precisely, the minimum CRS scores required for a draw and possibly the draw size will be affected by variations in the distribution of CRS scores over the year.
The implementation of category-based draws in 2023 is a significant additional aspect that complicates the prediction of CRS scores in 2024. Based on Express Entry categories that represent Canada’s labor market and demographic requirements, these are targeted draws. These categories are as follows:
- Healthcare occupations
- STEM occupations
- Trade occupations
- Transport occupations
- Agriculture and agri-food occupations
- French language proficiency
Candidates who fall into these categories, regardless of their relatively lower CRS score (which makes predicting future scores even more difficult), can frequently receive invitations to apply (ITAs) for permanent residence because they represent targeted groups that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has identified as important for immigration. Despite this, the majority of applicants will probably gain more from optimizing their CRS score before trying to get an ITA through one of these category-based draws.
The inclusion of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates in the Express Entry drawings is the final important consideration. Through PNP streams associated with Express Entry, these candidates gain provincial nominations. This results in an additional 600 CRS points for qualifying candidates, thereby distorting the total cut-off scores.
The CRS ratings for general, PNP, and category-based draws will be tracked and graphed throughout 2023 in the next portions of this article. Take note that Express Entry draw dates are provided in the following format: “dd/mm/yy.”
General/All-program draws
The Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) are examples of all-program draws. This was the typical Express Entry draw format before to the implementation of category-based drawings earlier in 2023, where candidates were chosen only based on their CRS score ranking.
19 all-program draws produced 76,700 ITAs throughout the year, with the highest CRS score cut-off at 561 points and the lowest at 481 points. Will 2024 see a decline in the CRS score?
PNP draws
There were five PNP drawings in 2023, and 4,396 ITAs were awarded to candidates. For this group, the lowest CRS score cut-off was 691, and the highest was 791.
Healthcare occupations
Those with experience in healthcare-related professions, such as nursing, medicine, physician, and many other job titles, were included in the Express Entry pool of candidates. Three healthcare drawings were held in 2023, totaling 5,600 ITAs. For this group, the highest recorded CRS score was 476, while the lowest was 431.
STEM occupations
Candidates in the Express Entry pool with experience in these four related fields—civil engineers, software developers, mathematicians, web designers, and more—were classified as Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) workers. Two healthcare draws totaling 6,400 ITAs were made in 2023. The highest score was 486.
Trade occupations
Trade occupations included candidates who had experience in professions like carpenters, plumbers, electricians, machine fitters, and more. In 2023 there were two transport Express Entry draws, yielding 2,500 ITAs for candidates. The highest draw was 425.
Transport occupations
Transport occupation draws considered candidates with experience in professions like transport truck drivers, air traffic controllers, aircraft assemblers, managers in transportation, and more. In 2023 two transport draws yielded 1,670 ITAs to candidates. The last draw was on 20 Dec, 2023 with a CRS cutoff of 435.
Agriculture and Agri-food occupations
Candidates with professional expertise as butchers, agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors, and other roles are attracted to the agriculture and agri-food industries. In 2023, two draws focused on agriculture and agri-food produced 1,000 ITAs for candidates. The highest CRS cutoff was 386.
French language proficiency
Target candidates for French language skills are those who score at least a level 7 in each of the four language proficiency domains (reading, writing, speaking, and listening) as determined by the Niveaux de Compétence Linguistique Canadiens (NCLC), the country’s French language grading system. 8,700 ITAs were awarded to applicants in six French language draws this year, with the lowest CRS score cut-off being 375 and the highest being 486.
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