An Access to Information Request (ATIP) released recently predicts that in 2024, French language skills will predominate in category-based selection Express Entry drawings. The ATIP report shows that throughout draws in 2024, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will issue 78.5% of all Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to Express Entry candidates in category-based selection draws. The remaining 21.5% of ITAs will be issued in general draws. French language proficiency.g
Candidates who meet the requirements for selection via the French proficiency category will earn thirty percent of these, with the next greatest percentage going to those in STEM fields (25%) and healthcare (15%).
The percentages of ITAs by category break down as follows:
| Round type | Category Target |
|---|---|
| French proficiency | 30% |
| Healthcare occupations | 15% |
| STEM occupations | 25% |
| Trade occupations | 5% |
| Transport occupations | 3% |
| Agriculture and agri-food occupations | 0.5% |
The IRCC implemented category-based selection draws in May 2023 to specifically target Express Entry candidates who possess desirable qualities including language proficiency and work experience.
Why is French proficiency leading?
Another ATIP report from April 2023, highlighted French proficiency as being especially crucial because, as per a 2021 Labour Market Information Council report, Canadian employers were facing difficulties in filling open positions requiring bilingualism with qualified and skilled candidates. Additionally, it was discovered that primary economic applicants who spoke French had greater employment rates.
A January Statistics Canada study, which indicated that language proficiency is the primary determinant of an economic immigrant candidate’s overall success in the Canadian labor market, corroborated this data.
When the category was first proposed, the IRCC stated in the 2023 ATIP that between 11% and 15% of candidates would be invited through category-based selection. But out of all the categories, French proficiency draws have welcomed the most candidates thus far (17,300 ITAs since July 2023).
In addition, the department pointed out that a large number of candidates who speak French will be invited, which would help the IRCC reach its legislated goal of having 4.4% of all francophone immigrants settle outside of Quebec by 2023.
In this regard, the department was successful. In January of this year, Immigration Minister Marc Miller declared that 4.7% of all new immigrants were from outside of Quebec. He stated that the goal would increase to 6% by 2024.
The same ATIP observed that there was conflicting support for this category. Although 54% of stakeholders agreed with the category, 42% said they were unsure of the impact or thought it would have no effect. Stakeholder support in British Columbia and Alberta was at an all-time low. They believed that outside of Francophone minority groups, there would be no appreciable economic impact.
Supporters of the category included respondents who stated that bilingualism is necessary in the fields of education, healthcare, tourism, and hospitality. Additionally, they outlined the non-financial advantages of the category, such as lowering obstacles to services in French-speaking minorities’ native tongue.
When will draws occur and how big will they be?
The IRCC has created a schedule for Express Entry drawings in 2024, under the 2024 ATIP. Most information has been censored, though. According to the statement, draws will take place in a manner that “provides clients with a consistent schedule and predictability to provinces and territories.”
This is the first hint that this year’s draws will follow a set schedule. The draw frequency in 2023 was unpredictable due to the use of category-based selection.
The IRCC has held a general draw and at least one category-based draw every two weeks so far in 2024, while there have been times when three draws have taken place in a single week. It is impossible to know if this pattern will hold true for the remainder of the year.
The IRCC states that it will invite candidates based on admissions targets specified in the current (2024–2026) Immigration Levels Plan, which will determine the size of the draws. The International Republican Committee (IRCC) hopes to admit 110,770 new permanent residents in 2024 and 117,500 in 2025. Every year, the number of candidates accepted will differ from the target because Express Entry applications typically take six months to process. This means that candidates invited in the latter half of this year will not land in Canada until 2025.
Impact on CRS scores
The Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score and pool composition may differ from expectations based on PT (Provincial and Territorial) behavior and pool replenishment, but anticipated round sizes at this frequency [of draws] should be feasible based on current expectations for pool vitality, according to the 2024 ATIP.
In other words, the minimum CRS cut-off scores for future drawings will depend on the quantity of candidates in the Express Entry application pool and their CRS scores.
In the 2023 ATIP, the IRCC stated that it anticipated a ten percent decrease in the overall average CRS score after category-based selection rounds were implemented. Higher CRS are associated with superior economic outcomes, therefore it was projected that this decline will likely aid in increasing source country and occupational variety. However, it was also highlighted that there might be a detrimental effect on the economic success of newcomers. French language proficiency.
The lowest score requirements for general draws in Express Entry draws have increased recently, with none falling below 524. Conversely, far lower scores have been necessary for other category-based selection draws; for example, 336 was needed for a French-language proficiency draw on February 29.
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